From Astana to Munich: Steve Clarke’s Scotland are unrecognisable to the side of old.

On 21st March 2019, the Scotland Men’s National Football Team hit one of the lowest points in their history. It was the first day of qualifiers for Euro 2020. The Tartan Army travelled to Kazakhstan, facing a side then ranked 117th in the world having won just three of their last 30 competitive games. Alex McLeish’s men would surely get off to a flying start as they looked to qualify for their first major tournament in more than two decades. Their hosts had other plans and would go 2-0 up inside ten minutes, before Baktiyar Zaynutdinov headed in a third six minutes after the break.

The mood amongst the Scotland players and staff on that turgid Thursday afternoon in Astana was perhaps best captured by goalkeeper Craig Gordon in a post-match interview with Sky Sports. Looking ahead to their trip to San Marino three days later, Gordon said that the lowest ranked team in world football “might fancy their chances.”

Fortunately, Scotland would get back to winning ways as Johnny Russell and Kenny McLean scored their first international goals, but the 2-0 scoreline was still disappointing, causing the Tartan Army to boo Alex McLeish. Despite having guided to Scotland to promotion for League C in the first UEFA Nations League campaign, it was clear that his position was untenable. Within days the rumours were that he’d be sacked, and these came to fruition three weeks later.

Enter Steve Clarke, the former St Mirren and Chelsea defender who had just led Kilmarnock to a remarkable third place finish in the Scottish Premiership. In his now just over five years in charge, Clarke has transformed the fortunes of the Scotland team. After a 1-0 win over Cyprus on his managerial debut, four straight defeats against Belgium and Russia would end Scotland’s hopes of securing a top two finish in their qualifying group, but thanks to their Nations League performance, they had a second chance.

Clarke’s side were to go into a playoff and would reach the tournament thanks to a semi-final penalty shoot-out win over Israel at an empty Hampden Park, before doing the same to Serbia in Belgrade. David Marshall became a national hero after denying Aleksandar Mitrović from the spot to secure Scotland’s place at a major tournament for the first time in 23 years, giving a country in their second COVID-19 lockdown a reason to smile.

At the delayed Euro 2020, Scotland were drawn into a difficult group with rivals England, Croatia and the Czech Republic. Making only their third appearance at a European Championships (following 1992 and 1996) few expected Scotland to pull up many trees, progressing from the group stage of a major tournament for the first time in their history a long shot. Indeed, they didn’t, aside from holding England to a goalless draw at Wembley, perhaps the Three Lions biggest hiccup on route to their penalty heartbreak in the final. But Clarke’s men had some of that fabled ‘tournament experience’, which had long eluded Scottish Men’s sides at least. And for many, there was, for the first time in a long time, plausible hope of further tournaments to come.

After two draws and a win in their first three World Cup Qualifiers, which unusually took place prior to Euro 2020, Scotland eventually finished second behind Denmark in Group F. As a result, they contested a playoff semi-final at Hampden Park which they would lose 1-0 to Ukraine. But the Tartan Army knew that if they could repeat a second place in Euros Qualifying, they’d be off to Germany.

Before that though, Nations League Promotion provided a further boost. A strong campaign in which Clarke’s men beat Armenia twice, Ireland once, and ironically, earned four points from their two games against Ukraine means that they’ll play Portugal, Poland and Croatia home and away this autumn. And importantly for some, gave the Tartan Army something to laud over England, who were relegated to League B after a dismal campaign.

The Scots weren’t handed an easy group in qualifying for this summer’s Germany-based festival of football; drawn into a group with Spain, and a Norway side that boasts Manchester City goal machine Erling Haaland and Arsenal’s creative maestro Martin Ødegaard. A 3-0 win at home to Cyprus was routine, if unremarkable. But it did set the tone for two key players. Aston Villa’s John McGinn opened the scoring in the 21st minute, rifling the ball in on the volley after a sublime cross from skipper Andrew Robertson. And Scott McTominay, who would score the first two of his eight goals in qualifying late on. Despite usually operating as a defensive midfielder at club level and having previously played at centre back for his country on occasion, the Lancashire-born midfielder rolled back the years to his academy days, to show striker-like composure. For his first, in the 87th minute, McTominay would take a neat touch to control Lydon Dykes’ flick-on and blast the ball into the roof of the net from a difficult angle four yards out. His second, in stoppage time, was much simpler. Robertson squaring the ball to McTominay who made a late dart into the box and found the back of the net from twelve yards.

Next came a much bigger test, as Spain were the visitors to Glasgow. Still reeling after a disappointing round of sixteen exit in Qatar, the Spaniards were stunned by another McTominay double. The first came after just six and a half minutes, the Manchester United man darting into the box to meet Robertson’s cut back and get Hampden roaring.

Scotland would have to ride their luck at times, Spain inches away from an equaliser on multiple occasions in the first half. Then, just six minutes after the restart, a crucial second goal, McTominay again arriving late to meet Kieran Tierney’s deflected cross, striking the ball through the legs of David Garcia and past Kepa in net. Hampden erupted once more, the feeling amongst Scotland fans the opposite from that of four years earlier. This was the biggest result of Clarke’s Scotland tenure, as his side frustrated Spain by allowing them to have 75 percent of the ball but do very little with it.

Results such as this are surely what was on the mind of Germany midfielder Toni Kroos, who is set to retire after the Euros, when he described Scotland as ‘unangenehm’ or unpleasant meaning that Scotland are difficult to play against. Given the Germans’ struggles to break down teams such as Scotland, the gameplan from the victory over Spain could be a good blueprint for Clarke to deploy against Germany in Munich.

Scotland’s good form continued in June, with a comeback victory in Oslo. Norway were 1-0 up with four minutes to go, but were left to rue missed chances after goals from Lyndon Dykes and Kenny McLean condemned Haaland and co. to a 2-1 defeat. Three days later, strikes from Callum McGregor and Scott McTominay saw Georgia defeated 2-0 at a very wet Hampden Park. Halfway through the qualifying campaign, Scotland had a perfect record. If the European Championships had been held a year ago, confidence amongst fans may well have been sky high. Form in the ten games since has been mixed, with just two wins, though there are important caveats to this.

A trip to Cyprus was next up in the Tartan Army’s qualifying campaign, and they came away with another comfortable 3-0 win. Then there was a trio of tough tests, as lost 3-1 to England in a friendly, 2-0 in Spain in qualifying, and 4-1 away to France. These results reminded Scottish fans that their side still had a way to go to consistently beat the best. But with their place in Germany now confirmed after other results went their way was cause for optimism. The fact that it was considered beneficial for Scotland to text themselves against the likes of France again shows just how well they have performed in recent years.

Whilst defeats against three of Europe’s top were expected, Lawrence Shankland being required to rescue a point away to Georgia certainly was disappointing in isolation, but after Robertson and co. rounded off their qualifying campaign with a 3-3 draw at home to Norway, no one could really have any complaints. They had qualified very comfortably, six points ahead of a Norway side many had tipped to beat them to second place.

March brought a 4-0 defeat at the hands of the Netherlands, though the scoreline more than flattered the Dutch. Scotland dictated the tempo with some neat passing moves for the first hour or so, only Tijjani Reijnders’ rocket separating the sides in Amsterdam. The other three Dutch goals came in the final eighteen minutes, the Scottish defence disintegrating after an abundance of substitutions. The following 1-0 defeat to Northern Ireland couldn’t be excused in the same way. Clarke’s side earned a much-needed win in the Algarve last week, as they beat Gibraltar (ranked amongst the ten worst teams in international football) 2-0. Scotland had seven big chances in that game and will have to hope that their finishing is better when it matters. In many ways, it’s a result that could have been viewed in a similar way to the win over San Marino under Alex McLeish on its own but hasn’t been, given the amount of credit Steve Clarke has in the bank, and the fact that his side were missing several players. Wales’s goalless draw four days later has also taken the heat of Scotland somewhat. Their final friendly against Finland last Friday was comfortable, if a little uninspiring for the first hour, but Scotland found themselves 2-0 up. Unfortunately, they would slip to a 2-2 draw, substitutions leading a disjointed defence to collapse in a manner comparable to their trip to Amsterdam three months ago.

Overall, Scotland’s recent form is a mixed bag. They have never had a great record in friendlies, and regardless have come on leaps and bounds since the turn of the decade. The recent struggles will soon be forgotten if Scotland enjoy any semblance of success, but just what are their chances?

The biggest problem for Scotland at Euro 2020 was their lack of a clinical striker, mustering just one goal across all three group games, despite registering 41 shots. This hasn’t been solved up front, but with the goal scoring form of McTominay and, to a lesser extent, McGinn, Scotland do pose significantly more goal scoring threat. Though that didn’t appear to be the case against Gibraltar, they were without McTominay.

The left-hand side will be crucial to Scotland’s success, with captain Andrew Robertson at left wingback, and Arsenal’s Kieran Tierney on the left of Clarke’s preferred back three. The rotations offered by the duo are key, with Tierney the inside left channel and Robertson in the outside left able to maraud pretty much as far forward as he likes, driving his side forward showcasing his attacking instincts that have at times been stifled at Liverpool in recent years and driving his side forward with pace on the break. Scotland’s play is often quite reliant on crosses, and with Clarke’s two preferred right wingbacks, Everton’s Nathan Patterson and Brentford’s Aaron Hickey missing the tournament through injury, the pressure on the left-sided tag team to deliver may well be greater than ever.

Set pieces are also a big part of Scotland’s chance creation, and with this in mind, as well as his hold up play, QPR’s Lydon Dykes is a big miss up front. He may not be prolific, but his ability to bring midfielders into play will be missed. In his place, expect either Hearts’ Lawrence Shankland, who has scored 59 goals in 94 appearances at club level over the past two seasons, or Southampton’s Ché Adams, a less physical, pacey striker who scored 16 goals for Southampton as they won promotion back to the Premier League. I wouldn’t bet against seeing McTominay up top at some point either, particularly if Scotland need to rescue a late goal.

Success for Scotland would simply be qualifying from the group stage for the first time. A year ago, I’d have been confident, less so now given the absences of Hickey, Patterson, Dykes and Lewis Ferguson, who was named midfielder of the season in Serie A last month. Overall, I still just about fancy them to do it, but whatever happens in Germany over the next few weeks, the Tartan Army can enjoy their first overseas tournament in over a quarter of a century knowing that Scottish football is in its strongest position since the 1990s.